In July, the headlines were cheerful. Global coffee prices were dropping after a run of poor harvests, and South Africans were told relief was on the way.
Three months later, most coffee drinkers have not noticed much difference.
The short answer: South Africa imports almost all its coffee, retail prices lag global prices by months, and the bean is only a small part of what you pay for in a café. Relief is likely, but data suggests it may only be clearly felt in 2027.
What actually happened to coffee prices
For the past few years, coffee was one of the fastest-rising items in the shopping basket. Drought hit Brazil and Vietnam, which together supply 54% of South Africa’s coffee imports, and global prices climbed (BusinessTech, 9 July 2026).
By mid-2026, supply was recovering. Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo described the price drop as good news for local coffee drinkers. Stats SA’s consumer price data showed coffee inflation easing to 4.6% year on year in May 2026, down from 6.3% in April.
But “easing” is not “falling.” By International Coffee Day on 1 October, consumer analytics firm Eighty20 reported that coffee was still outpacing the wider food basket (Cape {Town} Etc, 1 October 2026):
| Measure (August 2026) | Change |
|---|---|
| Headline inflation | 4.4% |
| Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 1.1% |
| Instant coffee, year on year | 5.6% |
| Instant coffee since mid-2022 | 57% |
One surprising detail: Stats SA no longer includes ground coffee and beans in its price basket, so instant coffee is now the official yardstick.
Why your café latte moves slowly
When global prices fall, your cup does not follow overnight. A few reasons:
- Import lag. Beans bought months ago at higher prices still have to be roasted and sold.
- Retail is sticky. As The Citizen noted, lower global prices do not automatically mean lower prices on shelves.
- The bean is a small slice. In a café latte, you also pay for milk, the barista’s time, rent, electricity, cups and the table you sit at.
In other words, a café coffee is priced more like a service than a commodity.
When will coffee get cheaper?
The US Department of Agriculture forecasts a record global harvest of 189.7 million bags in 2026/27, up 6%. Eighty20’s research suggests that extra supply could put downward pressure on South African prices, with the effect becoming more noticeable in 2027. That is a forecast, not a promise.
What this means for coffee lovers
South Africans are not giving up their coffee. Around 22 million people drank some form of coffee on the day surveyed in the data Eighty20 cites. What is changing is where people spend.
If a café coffee costs more than a cup at home, it makes sense to choose café visits that feel worth it: a proper catch-up, a pretty setting, a drink you cannot make yourself.
That is the thinking behind Goddess Café’s signature lattes, including its famous pink latte. And for something more indulgent, the Sip & Dip Tasting pairs handcrafted lattes with sweet treats for R120 per person (limited time) [CLIENT INPUT REQUIRED: confirm offer is still running before publishing].
Frequently asked questions
Is coffee getting cheaper in South Africa? Coffee inflation slowed in 2026, but prices were still rising faster than food overall in August 2026.
Why does South Africa pay so much for coffee? The country imports most of its coffee, so global harvests and the rand both affect local prices.
Where does South Africa’s coffee come from? Mostly Brazil and Vietnam (54% combined), followed by Uganda, Tanzania, Colombia, Guatemala, Ethiopia and Honduras.
Make the next cup count
See the drinks menu or book a table at your nearest Goddess Café.
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